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ECOLOGICAL CEILING

Climate change

In overshoot 1,890% overshoot, worst-performing ecological category

1,890% overshoot

in greenhouse gases per capita

62% overshoot

in electricity from non-renewable sources

Framing

Human activity releases greenhouse gases, mainly by burning fossil fuels and degrading the environment. An increased concentration of these gases in the atmosphere leads to climate change. In California, the main sectors producing emissions include transportation, industrial processes and manufacturing, agriculture and land-use change, electricity generation, heating and cooking, and the production and disposal of refrigerants. The biosphere has a certain capacity to absorb greenhouse gases, but if we exceed this limit, we risk damaging Earth's life support systems, which we rely on to survive. Scientists recommend not exceeding a global temperature rise of more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this, each person can release a maximum of approximately 1 metric tonne (1,000 kg) of greenhouse gases (GHG) per year.

Policy spotlight

* The Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32) and California Climate Crisis Act of 2022 set a goal of 259 MMT CO2 eq per year by 2030 and 64.6 MMT CO2 eq by 2045. This is equal to around 7 tonnes per capita in 2030 and 1.7 tonnes per capita in 2045. * The SB 100 (2018) California Renewables Portfolio Standard Program requires that renewable energy supply 100 percent of California's electric retail sales by 2045. This includes sources like nuclear, biomass, and hydro.

Justice lens

* While some Californians have greenhouse gas footprints well below the state average, wealthy individuals emit 50+ tonnes per year. * Around half the people on Earth do not exceed the per capita limit for CO2 emissions. Inequality in emission profiles mirrors the inequality of access to wealth and resources both within and between countries. * In general, countries and locations with the least emissions will be hardest hit by the impacts of climate change. Burning greenhouse gases also produces wealth, so these countries tend to have the least wealth reserves to invest in resilience and recovery from climate impacts.

Source & citation

Content on this page draws from The California Doughnut Snapshot and Report, used under CC-BY 4.0.

Aritza, A. and Kraus-Polk, J. et al. (2025). The California Doughnut Snapshot and Report. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17540639